Signals - Apple’s secondary market value: resilience at record levels

Signals is Dipli’s quarterly data format designed to decode the weak signals shaping the circular tech market. Get more details about Signals by clicking here.

In this edition, three exclusive data points reveal how iPhone value is evolving across the secondary market:

• Refurbished iPhone prices declined by an average of 21.89%, but depreciation patterns vary significantly between generations,
• iPhone residual value is approaching a record 50% at M+24, an unprecedented event,
• The iPhone 17 Family is projected to gain +9 percentage points vs. the iPhone 16 Family at M+12, reaching a record 64.7% residual value.

Together, these Signals highlight a clear shift in Apple’s secondary market dynamics: while refurbished iPhone prices adjust throughout their lifecycle, recent generations are reaching increasingly high residual value levels. For market players, understanding when value moves, where it stabilizes and how much can still be captured is becoming critical to optimizing trade-in, pricing and upgrade strategies.

Signal #1 - How fast have refurbished iPhone prices really depreciated over the past year?

1. Apple's iPhone average depreciation reached -21.89%

Over the period analyzed, refurbished iPhone prices declined by an average of 21.89%, following a clear adjustment cycle throughout the year:

• Relative price stability through summer,
• A first correction following September,
• A sharper decline after the holiday season, as inventory progressively normalizes.

However, this market average only tells part of the story: depreciation patterns vary significantly between iPhone generations.

2. Refurbished iPhone depreciation varies widely by generation

The 21.89% average depreciation hides significant differences between iPhone generations. Older devices appear to be approaching a more stable price floor, while recent flagship models are still experiencing stronger price corrections.

The contrast is particularly clear regarding these data:

• Refurbished iPhone 11 128GB: -11.01%
• Refurbished iPhone 15 Pro 128GB: -30%

💡 Apple devices therefore tend to experience their strongest depreciation during their first years on the market before progressively entering a more resilient pricing phase.

For refurbished market players, the key indicator is not only how much a device depreciates, but also when its depreciation curve starts to flatten. Identifying this turning point can help professionals refine purchasing prices, protect margins and better anticipate the future resale value of their inventory.

Signal #2 - Could iPhone be the first smartphone family to break the 50% residual value mark at M+24?

1. iPhone residual value keeps moving upward

Two years after launch, residual value becomes a particularly strategic indicator. At this stage of the device lifecycle, upgrade cycles accelerate and more smartphones return to the secondary market through trade-in programs.

Across the latest iPhone generations, residual value at M+24 has consistently increased:

• iPhone 14 Family (256 GB): 43%,
• iPhone 15 Family (256 GB): 45.5%,
• iPhone 16 Family (256 GB): 47%.

This represents a +4-point increase across two generations, confirming a clear upward trajectory in Apple’s ability to preserve device value over time.

2. The 50% residual value threshold is coming into view

At M+24, most premium smartphone families analyzed retain less than 35% of their initial value. With the iPhone 16 Family forecast to reach 47%, Apple is moving well above this benchmark, and already is with the 45.5% of the iPhone 15 Family.

More importantly, the residual value floor has increased with each of the latest generations. If this trajectory continues, future iPhone Families could approach or even reach 50% residual value two years after launch.

💡 Such a threshold would represent a significant milestone for the secondary smartphone market. A device retaining around half of its initial value after two years creates stronger economics throughout its second life, from trade-in and refurbishment to resale.

For professionals, this growing value resilience reinforces the strategic importance of accurately forecasting residual values and integrating them into purchasing, pricing and inventory management decisions.

3. An asset that benefits both tech players and customers

The impact extends throughout the circular tech ecosystem and higher residual values directly strengthen the economics of trade-in programs.

• For tech players: when an iPhone retains more value after two years, professionals can offer more competitive buyback prices while capturing a higher-value device for redistribution across the secondary market
• For customers: this retained value can translate into greater purchasing power when upgrading to a new device.

Signal #3 - Could the iPhone 17 set a new residual value record at M+12?

1. iPhone 17 residual value projected at +9 percentage points vs. the previous generation

One year after launch, recent iPhone generations have consistently retained more than half of their initial value. Dipli’s data and projections show how this dynamic could accelerate with the iPhone 17 Family:

• iPhone 14 Family (256 GB): 53.5%,
• iPhone 15 Family (256 GB): 57.4%,
• iPhone 16 Family (256 GB): 55.8%,
• iPhone 17 Family: 64.7% projected.

Based on those projections, the iPhone 17 Family could gain approximately +9 percentage points compared with the iPhone 16 Family, reaching the highest M+12 residual value observed across these generations.

If confirmed, this would further strengthen Apple’s position in the secondary market.

2. Higher residual value means greater purchasing power

At a projected 64.7% of its initial value, the iPhone 17 Family could retain almost two-thirds of its original value one year after launch.

This creates significant purchasing power that can be activated through trade-in. In fact, a higher-value device allows customers to finance a larger share of their next smartphone purchase, reducing the effective cost of upgrading and making trade-in journeys more attractive.

For tech players, this creates an opportunity to use trade-in as a customer acquisition and retention lever. Competitive trade-in values can stimulate upgrades while simultaneously securing valuable inventory for the refurbished market.

💡 If this projected residual value is confirmed, the iPhone 17 could become a powerful trade-in asset in Apple’s next upgrade cycle.

🚦 Signals is powered by Dipli’s Market Data Lab: our intelligence engine for the circular tech market.

This newsletter decodes the weak signals shaping the circular tech market and turns them into actionable insights, giving tech leaders a decisive edge to anticipate shifts, seize opportunities, and make smarter, strategic decisions.

Each quarter, dive into three exclusive data points to stay ahead and build your own intelligence layer.

🧪 Beyond Signals, the Market Data Lab powers deeper forecasting, pricing strategy and performance benchmarking for circular tech leaders.

By combining real trade-in transactions, refurbished purchasing data, AI-driven market modeling, and machine learning, it delivers a comprehensive view of the secondary market: how refurbished devices perform over time across pricing, demand, residual value, and key lifecycle milestones, all grounded in real-time intelligence and predictive analytics.

Want the full picture? Explore the Market Data Lab.