iPhone’s residual value toward 50%: Apple is raising its M+24 value floor

Most premium smartphone families retain less than 35% of their original value two years after launch. Yet Apple's latest flagship generations are following a very different trajectory.

According to data analyzed by Dipli's Market Data Lab, the iPhone's residual value at M+24 has increased steadily across the last three generations. The iPhone 14 Family retains 43% of its original value 24 months after launch, followed by 45.5% for the iPhone 15 Family and provisionally 47% for the iPhone 16 Family (256 GB models). Generation after generation, Apple's flagship smartphones have gained 1.5 percentage points in residual value at the same stage of their lifecycle.

If this trend continues, future iPhone generations could surpass the symbolic 50% residual value threshold at M+24. Such a milestone would be unprecedented for a premium smartphone family in the secondary market and would further reinforce Apple's long-standing dominance in residual value performance.

In this article, we break down the data behind this trend and explore what it could mean for the years ahead.

Apple's iPhone residual value keeps increasing at M+24

1. M+24: why the two-year mark is the key milestone for smartphone residual value

Around the M+24 mark, upgrade cycles accelerate as many consumers replace their devices, leading to a significant increase in trade-in volumes. This influx of premium smartphones fuels the secondary market and shapes the availability of refurbished devices over the months that follow.

For refurbishment professionals and telecom operators, M+24 is therefore much more than a simple anniversary: it's the moment when a device generation reaches maturity, revealing its true ability to retain value under real market conditions.

💡 Measuring residual value at M+24 provides a reliable indicator of how well a smartphone preserves its value over the long term, making it a key benchmark for assessing its lifecycle performance. It offers valuable insights into depreciation trends and helps identify which flagship families are building stronger residual value over time.

2. iPhone 14, 15 and 16 Families show a consistent rise toward the 50% threshold

The latest Signals data reveals a remarkably consistent increase in iPhone residual value at M+24 across the last three generations:

• iPhone 14 Family (256 GB): retains 43% of its original value 24 months after launch.
• iPhone 15 Family (256 GB): reaches 45.5%, a +2.5-point increase.
• iPhone 16 Family (256 GB): could climbs to 47% or more, adding a further +1.5 points.

While the increase between generations is not perfectly linear, the overall trend is unmistakable: each new iPhone family has established a higher residual value floor than its predecessor.

💡Similar to the trend observed for Samsung's Galaxy S Family residual value at M+24, Apple appears to be steadily raising the long-term value retention of its flagship smartphones. If this trajectory continues, future generations could become the first premium smartphones to exceed the symbolic 50% residual value threshold at M+24.

What's next for iPhone residual value?

1. How Dipli's Market Data Lab measures smartphone residual value

The insights presented in this analysis are powered by Dipli's Market Data Lab, which combines AI-driven market modelling with real trade-in transaction data to track smartphone residual value across generations. Rather than relying on isolated price observations, the Market Data Lab measures residual value through a standardized methodology, providing reliable market signals for the refurbished smartphone ecosystem.

By monitoring devices at key lifecycle milestones such as M+12 and M+24, the Market Data Lab provides a consistent view of how flagship smartphones retain their value over time. This data-driven approach makes it possible to identify long-term market trends, compare generations under the same conditions and anticipate future shifts in the secondary market.

2. Will the iPhone 17 and future generations push residual value beyond 50%?

The data analyzed so far points to a clear trajectory: over the last three iPhone generations, residual value at M+24 keeps increasing by 1.5 or 2.5 percentage points with each new family.

If this pattern continues with the iPhone 17 Family, Apple's upcoming flagship generations could become the first premium smartphone family to retain more than 50% of their original value two years after launch.

💡The next key checkpoint will come with the first M+12 reading of the iPhone 17 Family, just before the iPhone 18 enters the market. While still only halfway through its lifecycle, this early indicator will reveal whether Apple's upward residual value trajectory continues. Dipli's Market Data Lab will be tracking the data closely to identify the next market signals.

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