Apple's refurbished iPhone pricing evolution: a predictable depreciation cycle

The launch of the iPhone 18 is now only a few months away, making it the perfect moment to look at what the secondary market is already telling us.

Based on pricing data analyzed by Dipli's Market Data Lab across the French retail and marketplace ecosystem, Apple's refurbished iPhone pricing evolution reveals a consistent depreciation pattern. While refurbished iPhone prices follow a predictable annual cycle, not every generation loses value at the same pace.

Our analysis shows that newer flagship models are still experiencing their steepest value corrections, while older generations appear to have reached a more stable floor, an insight that is becoming increasingly valuable for understanding the future of the refurbished smartphone market.

Apple's refurbished iPhone pricing: what one year of market data reveals about depreciation trends

1. A three-stage pricing market cycle

To better understand how refurbished iPhone prices evolve over time, we analyzed selling prices across the French retail and marketplace ecosystem between July 2025 and June 2026. The study covers a representative view of recent Apple flagship generations in the secondary market:

• iPhone 13 to iPhone 15 (128 GB)
• iPhone 13 Pro to iPhone 15 Pro (128 GB)

The data reveals a consistent three-stage pricing cycle:

• Relatively stable prices during the summer, before the launch of the next iPhone generation.
• A first price correction following Apple's September announcements, as the market starts adjusting to the arrival of new devices.
• A sharper decline after the holiday season, when increased trade-in volumes and normalized inventory levels boost the supply of refurbished iPhone.

💡 Rather than reacting randomly, the refurbished iPhone market appears to follow a recurring annual pricing cycle closely linked to Apple's product launches and the natural rhythm of supply entering the secondary market.

2. Average depreciation reached -21.89%, but generations behave differently

Over the 12-month period analyzed, the average selling price of refurbished iPhone declined by 21.89% across all models included in the study. While this figure provides a useful benchmark, it also masks significant differences between generations.

In fact, older iPhone generations appear to be entering a stabilization phase, whereas more recent flagship models are still experiencing their steepest value corrections. This contrast becomes particularly clear when comparing two devices at opposite ends of the lifecycle:

• Refurbished iPhone 11 (128 GB): -11.01 %
• Refurbished iPhone 15 Pro (128 GB): -30 %

Rather than simply losing value year after year, refurbished iPhone follow different depreciation trajectories depending on their maturity. As newer generations progressively move through the market, their rate of value loss slows, while older models tend to reach a more resilient floor.

💡 For tech professionals, understanding when depreciation begins to stabilize provides a much stronger indicator of long-term value in the refurbished smartphone market.

Will future iPhone generations follow the same depreciation curve?

The patterns observed over the past year suggest that refurbished iPhone prices follow a structured depreciation cycle rather than random market fluctuations. Yet one key question remains: will future Apple generations continue to behave the same way?
The next months will show whether this depreciation pattern continues to hold and how quickly the newest generations move toward a more stable floor.

Beyond price movements, these insights help market players anticipate inventory quality, optimize resale strategies, and better understand the future dynamics of the refurbished smartphone market.

The answer will ultimately come from the market itself.
As new Apple generations enter circulation, Dipli's Market Data Lab will continue monitoring refurbished iPhone pricing evolution to identify the next market signals. 📊

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With robust circular chain management and powerful data intelligence, we simplify and optimize every stage of the tech device lifecycle, end-to-end.

Designed for telcos, OEMs, and distributors, we deploy and manage tailored circular programs through scalable, high-performing tech solutions that streamline trade-in, refurbishment, and distribution of electronic products. With Dipli, turn circularity into a long-term growth engine.