Forget the leaks: the real story this year isn’t iPhone 17.

It’s that iPhone 16 is rewriting the rules of residual value and shaking up the entire trade-in ecosystem across Europe and beyond.

Something deeper is unfolding in the smartphone market in 2025: the depreciation curve is bending in real-time. While the world’s attention is fixed on the iPhone 17 release, the real revolution? It’s that the iPhone 16 is rewriting the rulebook on residual value.

The shift: depreciation is slowing

For years, the pattern seemed locked: new release, steep initial value drop, flood of trade-ins, repeat. But Apple is breaking this cycle:

• Longer-lasting hardware is keeping devices in use longer
• Owners are holding on-meaning far fewer devices hit the trade-in channel
• The result? The supply of second-hand iPhone tightens, just as consumer demand for high-quality reconditionné surges
• Meanwhile, the appetite for iPhone hasn’t waned one bit quite the opposite

Residual value: iPhone 16 sets new records

This unprecedented squeeze is driving residual values to all-time highs and Apple’s formidable brand further amplifies the loop, creating a virtuous circle that competitors can’t break.

📊 Residual Value at M+12 (128 GB):

• iPhone 16: 62.6% 
• iPhone 15: 56.6%
• iPhone 14: 52.3%
• iPhone 13: 62.0%

🔍 By comparison:

• Samsung Galaxy S24 (128 GB): 41.9%
• Google Pixel 9 (128 GB): 34.9%

Across Europe, from Paris to Warsaw, demand for premium refurbished iPhone is outpacing supply, making this one of the hottest markets in the circular economy. 

Why is this happening?

It’s not only about new release cycles. Apple’s strategy directly fuels this resilience:

• Durability: hardware built to last longer
• Software longevity: regular iOS updates keep devices usable
• Battery and performance: improved lifecycle extends ownership
• Consumer trust and brand equity: : Apple’s ecosystem commands higher resale prices
• Sustainability mindset: : buyers in Europe increasingly value refurbished over new

The result: a scarcity-driven premium that keeps residual values at the top of the market.

The winning strategy: Data-Driven circularity

At Dipli, we power the market’s most advanced pricing engine, able to process over 520,000 price points a day from every deal, auction, and bid on the market. With AI-predicted residual values spanning 20,000+ SKUs (all models, grades, countries), and real-world feedback loops from every transaction, we empower OEMs, operators and retailers to build ironclad, data-driven circular strategies.

The upshot? For anyone serious about capturing value consumers, retailers, OEMs there has never been a better (or more complex) time to master the second-hand market.

The question isn’t if you should act, but how fast.

Are you ready for a deep dive?
👉 Contact our Market Data Lab and create your unfair advantage.