Signals - Samsung’s trade-in playbook: a shifting value dynamic

Signals is Dipli’s quarterly data format designed to decode the weak signals shaping the circular tech market. Get more details about Signals by clicking here.

In this first edition, three exclusive data points highlight the transformation of Samsung’s Galaxy S ecosystem:

• Residual value at M+12 has increased by +10 points in just four generations,
• At M+24, devices show a +6-point improvement, confirming a structural shift in depreciation curves,
• Trade-in prices of the Galaxy S Family surged by +35% ahead of the S26 launch, reflecting strong market anticipation dynamics.

It is clear that Samsung’s trade-in playbook has evolved, demonstrating a simple takeaway: trade-in is no longer a supporting mechanism, it is a core driver of value creation. Let’s break down these Signals. 👇

Signal #1 - How much value does a Samsung flagship really retain at M+12 post-launch?

1. Samsung Galaxy S residual value reaches record levels with a +10-point increase

Twelve months after launch (M+12), Samsung’s flagship devices are retaining significantly more value than in previous cycles. Based on Dipli trade-in data, the evolution across the latest Galaxy S generations is clear:

• The Galaxy S22 Family (gen-4) retained 33% of its value,
• Followed by 34% for the S23 Family (gen-3),
• 39% for the S24 Family (gen-2),
• And reaching 43% for the S25 Family (gen-1).

This +10-point increase in residual value within just four generations signals a major shift in how Samsung devices perform in the secondary market. For professionals managing refurbished smartphones, this directly translates into stronger asset value, improved resale potential, and more predictable margins.

2. Trade-in programs as a core driver of value creation

The rise in Samsung's Galaxy S Families' residual value is the result of:

• Increasingly structured, competitive, and data-driven trade-in ecosystems across retailers, carriers, and OEMs:
• Growing competition between refurb players that pushes buyback prices upward,
• Growing usage of lifecycle management as a key lever across multiple dimensions: customer acquisition, lifetime value maximization, and supply chain optimization.

This shift confirms a broader trend in the circular tech market: residual value is no longer a passive outcome, it is actively managed, optimized, and leveraged as a performance driver.

3. Samsung is closing the gap with Apple on residual value

While Apple continues to lead the market with an average residual value of around 53% at M+12, Samsung is rapidly catching up. With the Galaxy S25 reaching 43%, the gap has significantly narrowed compared to previous generations.

This convergence reflects Samsung’s improved positioning in the refurbished and trade-in ecosystem. Stronger residual values enhance the brand’s competitiveness in upgrade journeys and reinforce its role in professional refurbishing strategies.

Signal #2 - What happens 24 months post-launch for Samsung Families?

1. M+24: a strategic moment for trade-in and refurbished market dynamics

At 24 months post-launch (M+24), electronic devices reach a critical milestone in their lifecycle : this is when consumer upgrade cycles peak, trade-in volumes accelerate, and the secondary market becomes highly active.

For professionals, this moment is key. It directly impacts trade-in strategies, inventory acquisition, and margin optimization across the refurbished devices market. As more devices re-enter the ecosystem through trade-in, businesses must anticipate volumes, pricing fluctuations, and resale opportunities.

M+24 is therefore not just a timing marker: it is a decisive phase where residual value becomes a core performance indicator for the entire circular tech market.

2. A +6-point increase confirms a structural shift in depreciation curves

Recent Dipli data highlights a clear improvement in residual value at M+24 across Samsung Galaxy S generations:

• The Galaxy S22 Family (gen-4) retained 28% of its value,
• Followed by 32% for the S23 Family (gen-3),
• And 34% for the S24 Family (gen-2).

This +6-point increase in just three generations confirms a structural shift already observed at M+12. Samsung devices are not only retaining more value in the short term, but also demonstrating stronger long-term performance in the secondary market.

Signal #3: What happened to trade-in prices ahead of the Galaxy S26 launch?

1. A +35% surge in trade-in prices within a few weeks

In the weeks leading up to the Galaxy S26 launch, trade-in dynamics across previous Samsung Galaxy S generations (S22 to S25) accelerated significantly.

Following the Galaxy Unpacked event on February 25, Dipli data shows that average trade-in prices in France increased by approximately +€55 between late February and late March, representing a +35% surge.

2. Anticipation effects: a key driver of trade-in market dynamics

The surge of Galaxy S Families trade-in prices illustrates a classic anticipation mechanism in the circular tech market. As soon as a new flagship device is announced, market players adjust their trade-in offers to stimulate consumer upgrades and secure inventory ahead of the official release.

By temporarily increasing buyback prices — often through trade-in bonuses — retailers, operators, and refurb players incentivize users to trade in their current devices. This strategy allows them to anticipate demand and strengthen their sourcing pipeline within the refurbished supply chain.

For businesses, mastering these anticipation cycles is critical. It enables better alignment between acquisition, pricing, and resale strategies, while reducing the risk of stock shortages during peak demand periods.

🚦 Signals is powered by Dipli’s Market Data Lab: our intelligence engine for the circular tech market.

This newsletter decodes the weak signals shaping the circular tech market and turns them into actionable insights, giving tech leaders a decisive edge to anticipate shifts, seize opportunities, and make smarter, strategic decisions.

Each quarter, dive into three exclusive data points to stay ahead and build your own intelligence layer.

🧪 Beyond Signals, the Market Data Lab powers deeper forecasting, pricing strategy and performance benchmarking for circular tech leaders.

By combining real trade-in transactions, refurbished purchasing data, AI-driven market modeling, and machine learning, it delivers a comprehensive view of the secondary market: how refurbished devices perform over time across pricing, demand, residual value, and key lifecycle milestones, all grounded in real-time intelligence and predictive analytics.

Want the full picture? Explore the Market Data Lab.